Igor Nesteruk
Abstract The sharp increase in the number of new COVID-19 patients in India in the second half of April 2021 has caused alarm around the world. A detailed analysis of this pandemic storm is still ahead. We present the results of anterior analysis using a generalized SIRmodel (susceptible-infected-removed). The final size of this pandemic wave and its duration were predicted. The obtained theoretical results were compared with the real pandemic dynamics in the summer of 2021 and showed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be a problem for mankind for a very long time.
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemi; Epidemic dynamics in India; Mathematical modeling of infection diseases; SIR model; Parameter identification; Statistical methods.